Hoping for a Housing Crash? Here's What the Experts Are Saying

If you've been waiting to buy a home because you think prices might crash, you're not alone.

Some buyers are hoping for a major drop in home prices because they believe that could finally make homeownership more affordable. Others are homeowners who worry that a housing crash could hurt the value of their property.

So what are the latest forecasts actually showing?

Right now, the national outlook doesn't point to a housing crash.

What Are Housing Experts Forecasting?

Every quarter, Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey asks more than 100 housing experts and economists to forecast where national home prices are headed over the next five years.

The latest survey continues to show positive home price growth rather than a broad national decline.

That doesn't mean prices will rise quickly everywhere. In fact, the forecasts call for more moderate growth as the housing market continues to normalize.

And that's an important distinction.

A slower rate of appreciation isn't the same thing as falling home prices.

Home Prices Can Grow More Slowly Without Crashing

The housing market has gone through some unusual years.

Prices surged during the pandemic, then growth began to slow as mortgage rates increased and affordability became more challenging.

A more normal market doesn't necessarily mean prices have to fall dramatically.

Instead, we could see a period where home prices continue to increase at a slower pace while incomes, inventory, and overall affordability gradually catch up.

Fannie Mae's own national Home Price Index also shows that home prices continued to increase through the second quarter of 2026, with prices up 3.2% year over year as of June 30.

But National Numbers Aren't Arizona Numbers

This is where buyers and sellers need to be careful with national headlines.

The United States isn't one housing market.

Arizona has its own inventory levels, employment trends, buyer demand, and affordability conditions. Even within Arizona, what's happening in one city or neighborhood can be very different from another.

That's why a national forecast shouldn't be used to decide whether you should buy or sell a particular home.

Instead, look at what's happening locally.

What This Means If You're Waiting To Buy

If you've been waiting for a major price drop, it's important to understand that a crash isn't something current national forecasts are calling for.

Waiting can make sense for personal financial reasons, but waiting solely because you expect home prices to collapse is a different strategy.

If prices continue to rise gradually, the same home could cost more in the future even if mortgage rates eventually improve.

The better question may be:

Does buying make sense for your finances and goals right now?

That's something you can evaluate based on your budget, financing options, local inventory, and the specific homes available.

What This Means for Arizona Homeowners

For homeowners, continued price growth could mean continued equity growth over time.

But again, the national forecast doesn't guarantee what will happen to an individual property.

Your home's value depends on factors such as location, condition, improvements, inventory, and recent comparable sales.

If you're thinking about selling, understanding those local numbers is much more useful than worrying about national crash headlines.

The Bottom Line

If you've been hoping for—or worrying about—a housing crash, the latest national expert forecasts aren't pointing in that direction.

Instead, the outlook calls for more moderate home price growth, although the pace can vary significantly by market.

For Arizona buyers and sellers, the most important question isn't what the national market is doing.

It's what's happening in your specific area and price range.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Arizona?

If you're wondering whether you should make a move now or wait, I'd be happy to help you look at the local numbers and understand how current market conditions could affect your plans.

Reach out anytime and let's talk about what's happening in your Arizona market and what it could mean for your next move. 🏡

Frequently Asked Questions

Are home prices expected to crash in 2026?

Current national forecasts from Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey do not call for a broad housing crash. The expert panel continues to forecast positive national home price growth, although at a more moderate pace.

Will Arizona home prices fall?

National forecasts cannot predict what will happen in every Arizona market. Local inventory, buyer demand, employment, affordability, and neighborhood conditions all influence Arizona home prices.

Should I wait for home prices to fall before buying?

There is no guarantee that waiting will result in a lower purchase price. Buyers should consider their financial situation, mortgage options, local home prices, and housing needs rather than relying solely on predictions about a future market decline.